THE GOP RACE – AT 11:56 A.M. ET:  Very interesting numbers from Fox:

GOP front-runner Donald Trump widens his lead in the nomination race, while Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz threaten to overtake Ben Carson for the number two spot.

Those four once again constitute the top tier in the latest Fox News national poll on the 2016 election.

In addition, Rubio joins Carson as the only candidates at least half of voters say are honest and trustworthy -- though Carson’s honesty rating has taken a hit. More on that later.

First, here’s how the GOP race stands: Trump remains in the top spot with a record 28 percent support from Republican primary voters. He was at 26 percent in the last Fox poll, which was completed before the last debate and the Paris attacks (November 1-3, 20att15).

Carson drops from 23 percent to 18 percent in the new poll. Cruz and Rubio are both up three points and garner 14 percent each.

All others are in the low single digits: Jeb Bush gets 5 percent, while Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, and Mike Huckabee each get 3 percent. John Kasich and Rand Paul receive 2 percent a piece.

COMMENT:  What we may be seeing here is the triumph of conventional wisdom.  Conventional wisdom holds that the two "outsiders" – Trump and Carson – will fight it out for "outsider champ."  Then the two leading office holders – Rubio and Cruz – will battle for "insider champ."  Then the outsider champ and insider champ will battle each other for the nomination.

Makes sense to me.

I think Trump will easily win the "outsider" title.  Carson is stumbling badly, and that's showing up in the polls.  Trump himself has made some progress, but nowhere near enough to assure nomination.

Cruz and Rubio are the fascinating ones.  I believe Rubio is far more electable than Cruz, but Cruz is dazzlingly brilliant.  Both men could defeat Hillary Clinton in a debate, but Cruz would have her for lunch.

Trump vs. Rubio or Trump vs. Cruz for the nomination?  Who will win?  The conventional betting is on Rubio or Cruz defeating Trump...but possibly at a brokered convention.  Who will be the nominee?  If the scenario just presented plays out, the conventional betting is on Rubio, because the GOP establishment will work overtime to stop Cruz, whom it despises. 

But never assume the conventional wisdom will prevail.  And this is a weird campaign.

November 22, 2015